Two ways to think - one great the other not

Your probably thinking wrong and losing big time.

You think one way when it be the other.

The more I can help you shift from this common-yet-deadly thinking to the better “type” the more successful you’ll be in life.

It won’t be easy but I’m up to try.

The thinking you’re likely doing right now is called deterministic thinking. “If I do x then y will happen.”

If you wake up early you’ll be more productive.

If you quit caffeine you’ll sleep better.

If you try really hard and are honest then you’ll succeed.

No.

Waking up early might make you more productive. Or less. Quitting caffeine could help you sleep better - or not. You can try really hard and be a nice person and still end up broke and miserable.

The problem with deterministic thinking is that it makes you falsely believe you have more control over the situation than you actually do. No matter how much you try to will a coin flip, it’s odds are 50%.

Now your success isn’t purely chance - nor is it purely effort.

It’s somewhere in between.

It’s in the probabilities.

Which is why it pays well to engage in probabilistic thinking*.*

Say you read about a scientific study on the benefits of waking up early. It’s the gold standard of all science, too - a double-blind, randomized controlled trial.

It is proven beyond a doubt that waking up early is overall the best strategy. Yet when you dig into the data, you discover that not 100% of people in the study benefited from it. And those who did benefit didn’t all benefit at the same rate.

What should you do? You should certainly try it out because the probability of it working for you is as high as it gets. But if it doesn’t work, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a loser or that you did it wrong.

You played the odds - which is the smartest way to increase your chances of success.

Another benefit of probabilistic thinking is it helps you discipline your disappointments. Don’t take it too personal if it didn’t work.

Everyone talks about how great it is to give up caffeine. Heck, it’s against my religion to even drink it! Yet at this stage in my life, whenever I give it up, I feel miserable. The last time I went 92 days without any and I felt as bad on the 92nd day as I did the first week.

I didn’t get any of the benefits that are rammed down my throat on social media.

Same with ice baths. I got some benefit at first because of the placebo effect and because it was novel.

Then it quickly wore off.

I didn’t need any more mental toughness - I was a monk once and a wrestler before that. I had the mental stuff. I just didn’t want to meditate any more. Ha.

But after an ice bath, meditation seemed easier again and when I went back to it, it gave me much better long term benefits than the ice bath ever did.

Just because it works for others doesn’t mean it will work for you. Just because it will work for you doesn’t mean it will work for others.

Even if you both implement it exact and correct.

Life is a series of probabilities. If Zuckerberg was born 20 years early, does he still become a billionaire? Or 20 years later?

If Da Vinci was a few miles over, it’s doubtful he’d ever had any career because he was born a bastard. He just happened to be born a bastard in a place where you could still have a chance.

You do the best you can with what you got. You think positive, you use your will and your grit and your desire… but please, also play the odds. Your next action likely won’t be a mega hit nor will it be a massive disaster. It will probably be forgotten by you and the masses.

But if it makes you slightly better and increases your odds that the next one will do even better… that’s success.

I once heard a fiction writer say that to write one great book you have to write three books. Because until you’ve went through the process twice, the chances of you being able to properly write a book that meets with commercial success is almost 0%.

If you know that it takes three to get one, then failing twice to win the third time is a lot more easy. But if you think “if I write the best book ever then I will be a success…” you probably won’t even start. Or if you lose (which you probably will) it will devastate you so much you won’t try again.

You have some control over the outcome.

You have more control over your attitude.

In wrestling we’d say leave it on the mat. You do what you can with what you have and if you give it your all - no regrets. In business, you increase your probabilities the most by finding ways to take chances that have little downside if they miss and high upside if they win.

So launch in beta. For cheap. With no polish. Then if it hits and people like it, optimize a bit more. Repeat. That’s how I went from a $4 ebook to a $250 million result… when nobody (including me) even knew what was what on the internet.